Wisconsin Senate Race Tightens as Poll Shows Baldwin and Hovde Neck and Neck

The race for Wisconsin’s Senate seat has narrowed to a razor-thin margin, with incumbent Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde locked in a near tie, according to a new poll from Marquette Law School. With Baldwin polling at 52% and Hovde at 48%, the race falls within the poll’s margin of error, making Wisconsin a key battleground state that could determine control of the U.S. Senate in 2024.

The poll, released on Wednesday, surveyed 822 registered voters in the Badger State between August 28 and September 5. With a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, both candidates are essentially tied, making this race one of the most competitive in the country.

Wisconsin is not only crucial for the Senate, but the presidential race is also neck-and-neck. The poll showed a similar 52-48 split between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with both locked in their own battle for the White House. When third-party candidates are included, Harris drops to 47%, Trump to 43%, and independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. takes 6%.

Key voter concerns in the Wisconsin Senate race include:

• The economy (41%)

• Abortion (15%)

• Immigration and border security (12%)

Hovde, a businessman, has made economic issues the central focus of his campaign, recently publishing an op-ed criticizing the Biden-Harris administration’s spending policies. “Inflation has crushed Wisconsin families,” Hovde wrote, blaming the administration’s $4.1 trillion in new spending over the last three years for driving up prices and increasing the national debt.

Baldwin, meanwhile, has maintained steady support from her base, focusing on protecting abortion rights and expanding healthcare access issues that resonate strongly with many Wisconsin voters. The Marquette poll shows Democrats with a slight edge in voter enthusiasm, with 72% of Democrats expressing excitement about the upcoming election compared to 63% of Republicans.

With the Democrats holding only a two-seat majority in the Senate, this race could prove pivotal, especially with Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) retiring in the heavily Republican state of West Virginia. A Baldwin loss in Wisconsin could tip the Senate back into Republican control.

As November approaches, both candidates are expected to double down on their core messages, particularly in a state that could play a decisive role in both the Senate and the presidential race.

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