The Misleading Nature of Trump vs. Harris Polls

Past Election Data and State-Specific Trends Reveal the Real Story.

Author

Greg Barnes
September 2nd, 2024 • Reading Time: 3 minutes

As Democrats grow increasingly optimistic about Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances against Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race, experts like Brent Buchanan, president of Cygnal Polling Group, are sounding a note of caution. While Harris may appear to have an edge in some national polls, Buchanan argues that these numbers could be misleading, especially when you consider the critical role that key battleground states—like Pennsylvania—will play in the election.

  • Historical Context Matters: Buchanan emphasizes the importance of comparing current polling data to past elections. At this point in 2020, Joe Biden was polling 7.1 points ahead of Trump nationally, yet only won by 4.5%. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is only showing a slim 3.5% lead in some polls, which could narrow even further as the election draws closer.

  • The Keystone State's Pivotal Role: Pennsylvania, often dubbed the "Keystone State" for good reason, remains a crucial battleground. In 2020, Biden barely secured Pennsylvania, winning by just over 1%, a margin that could easily flip in favor of Trump in 2024. Buchanan notes that Harris is struggling more than Biden did with key voter groups like independents, Hispanics, and young voters in Pennsylvania, which could spell trouble for her campaign.

  • Polling Trends and August Blues: Buchanan points out that August is historically a bad month for Republicans in polls. He argues that any perceived lead by Harris at this time should be taken with a grain of salt, as Republicans typically perform better closer to Election Day.

Beyond the numbers, Buchanan highlights the importance of voter sentiment. Many voters, especially those disaffected by the political establishment, see Trump as a candidate who fights against the "system," a perception that could drive turnout in his favor despite current polling.

As the race heats up, it’s clear that both campaigns will need to focus heavily on battleground states like Pennsylvania, where the margin for error is razor-thin. For Democrats, relying solely on national polling data could lead to overconfidence, while Republicans should be mindful of the trends that favor them as the election draws near.

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