Trump’s 2024 Strategy: Turning a Guilty Verdict into an Advantage

The guilty verdict in former President Donald Trump’s hush-money trial in Manhattan has caused ripples in the 2024 White House race. While some dynamics have shifted, Trump remains a formidable contender against President Joe Biden.

A New York jury convicted Trump last Thursday on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to allegedly cover up payments aimed at concealing a tryst with adult film star Stormy Daniels. The case, part of a "catch-and-kill" scheme to influence the 2016 election, resulted in Trump pleading not guilty and vowing to appeal the decision. Sentencing is scheduled for July 11.

Despite the legal setback, Trump's campaign saw a surge in support. Within hours of the verdict, GOP online payment processor WinRed temporarily crashed as Trump's campaign website directed supporters to a donation page. The campaign boasted $53 million raised online within 24 hours, contributing to a total of $141 million with the Republican National Committee (RNC) for May. This figure significantly surpasses the $76 million raised in April.

Wealthy donors, even those previously aligned with Democrats, are now warming up to Trump. Shaun Maguire, a partner at venture capital firm Sequoia, announced a $300,000 donation to Trump after supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 and abstaining in 2020. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, another former Democrat supporter, is reportedly leaning toward Trump.

Polls suggest the verdict did little to shift public opinion. An ABC News/Ipsos poll showed 50% of Americans believe the guilty verdict was correct, while 49% think Trump should end his campaign. Trump's favorability remained steady at 31%, with Biden at 32%. Morning Consult noted a slight dip in Trump’s polling lead, shrinking from 2 points to 1 point post-verdict. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found only one in ten Republicans were less likely to vote for Trump after the guilty verdict, indicating a close prospective matchup against Biden.

Trump faces three additional criminal investigations at the state and federal levels as he seeks re-election. These cases, which Trump labels a "witch hunt," may not reach trial before the November election but will continue to dominate headlines. Trump's allies rally behind him, emphasizing a fight against "lawfare."

House Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), are prepared to counter what they see as political retribution against Trump. They have outlined a "three-pronged" plan involving investigations, legislation, and funding to combat these prosecutions. Meanwhile, in the Democrat-controlled Senate, Republican senators have vowed to obstruct Biden’s agenda in protest of the prosecutions, though their ability to halt progress is limited.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), a vocal critic of Trump, suggested that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg should have settled the case, calling the decision to prosecute "political malpractice." Romney warned that while Bragg may have won a legal battle, he risks losing the broader political war.

Legal experts doubt the 77-year-old Trump will face imprisonment given his lack of a prior criminal record, though the Secret Service has coordinated with local jail officials as a precaution. Alternatives to imprisonment could include probation or community service. With the judge scheduling sentencing just days before the Republican convention in Milwaukee, the RNC is preparing for the possibility that Trump could be in jail when he receives the party’s nomination.

The unfolding legal drama and Trump’s continued defiance may ultimately play to his advantage, galvanizing his base and securing his position as a key player in the 2024 election.

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