Trump Weighs AI Chip Export Decision to China

President Trump is once again at the center of a decision with massive implications for America’s national security and global technology dominance. At issue: whether to allow U.S. tech companies, particularly Nvidia, to sell advanced AI chips to China.

On Monday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made clear that the final call rests with the President. “That is the question … in front of the president,” Lutnick said in an interview when asked whether permitting AI chip exports to China posed a greater national security threat than restricting them.

Trump’s administration has already taken a strong stance by blocking exports of Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell chips. But the question now is whether the H200 chips a step below Blackwell but still more powerful than earlier models should be allowed into Chinese markets.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

• The H200 chips are a critical component in advanced AI systems, and China has made no secret of its desire to surpass the U.S. in artificial intelligence leadership.

• China is outbuilding the U.S. in energy infrastructure, a key piece in powering AI supercomputers, making Washington’s decisions on chip exports even more pivotal.

• The U.S. currently holds an estimated 30-to-1 computing advantage over China in high-end AI systems but that lead could shrink dramatically if export restrictions are relaxed.

Samuel Hammond, chief economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, issued a blunt warning: “Permitting H200 exports to China would be a world-historic mistake.” According to Hammond, if the U.S. eases controls, its edge in AI could plunge from a 30x advantage to just 4x in a short span potentially erasing years of progress.

Trump’s AI Czar, David Sacks, offered a more nuanced take, acknowledging the internal battle between Washington regulators and Silicon Valley innovators. “What Washington wants is control,” Sacks said, pointing the finger at entrenched federal bureaucracies. “If we let the bureaucracy win, we are going to kill American competitiveness all over the world.”

Sacks stressed that Silicon Valley’s path to dominance lies in scale. “The way you win a technology race is to have the biggest ecosystem … the most developers … the most apps.” That means ensuring the global tech community builds on U.S. platforms not Chinese alternatives.

Still, Sacks isn’t suggesting an open floodgate. “I don’t think you want to sell China our latest and greatest chips,” he said. But he did note two strategic advantages to allowing limited exports of older chips like the H200:

1. Avoiding complete economic decoupling with China, which could trigger retaliatory moves such as China restricting access to rare earth minerals vital to U.S. tech.

2. Undermining Chinese companies like Huawei, which aims to monopolize the Chinese AI market and eventually challenge U.S. dominance globally. Allowing less advanced U.S. chips into China could keep American companies competitive in that region while limiting Beijing’s ability to build a homegrown monopoly.

Trump, for his part, has not made his final decision public. He confirmed on Truth Social that he spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping recently, mentioning several topics but not the Nvidia H200 chips directly.

Yet this moment captures what makes the Trump Administration different from the weak-willed incompetence of the Biden era calculated strength. Trump understands the delicate balance between economic leverage and national security and unlike Biden, he doesn’t let bureaucrats or globalists make the decisions for him.

America’s AI dominance must be protected. If we allow China to close the gap, we risk not only economic loss but giving the Chinese Communist Party the keys to future global influence. President Trump has shown before that he’s not afraid to make the tough calls and this one may be the most critical yet.

Subscribe to our newsletter for updates and share this article if you believe America’s future in technology should never be handed over to the CCP.