Trump’s Victory Driven by Minority Gains and Media Rejection

President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 victory signaled a seismic shift in American politics, driven by unprecedented gains among minority voters and a growing rejection of establishment media. Data from the GOP polling group Cygnal shows that cultural issues and alternative media played pivotal roles in flipping key demographics and propelling Trump to victory over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump made significant inroads with Hispanic and African-American voters compared to his 2020 performance. According to Cygnal exit polling, Hispanic voters shifted a staggering 24 points toward Trump, reducing Democrats’ lead among this group from 33 points in 2020 to just 9 points in 2024. Similarly, the Democratic advantage among African-American voters fell by 16 points, narrowing their lead from 75 points in 2020 to 59 points in 2024.

Brent Buchanan, president of Cygnal, attributed these shifts to Democrats’ embrace of extreme cultural positions. “Democrats have gone off into this woke ideology where you’ve got to believe all these things or you’re a bad person,” Buchanan said. “Republicans are like, ‘We like normalcy,’ and the majority of the country is rejecting that.”

Hot-button cultural issues such as sex-change treatments for minors and the fairness of trans-identifying athletes in women’s sports played a crucial role in aligning minority voters with Trump’s message of common sense and traditional values.

Trump also extended his lead among non-college-educated voters, widening the so-called “diploma divide” in U.S. politics. While he carried this group by just 2 points in 2020, his margin grew to 16 points in 2024. This trend underscores a growing realignment in which Democrats increasingly rely on college-educated, coastal elites, while Republicans gain traction among working-class voters.

Another key factor in Trump’s success was his ability to bypass traditional media and communicate directly with voters through alternative outlets. Cygnal’s data revealed that voters who consumed news from establishment outlets, like CBS and NBC, heavily favored Harris by 39 points. Newspaper readers leaned even more Democratic, giving Harris a 48-point advantage.

However, Trump dominated among voters who rely on talk radio (40-point lead), X (formerly Twitter) users (41-point lead), Facebook users (22-point lead), and streaming services (26-point lead). This stark contrast highlights the declining trust in mainstream media and a growing appetite for alternative sources of information.

“Establishment outlets are telling people what to think, and they’re not giving them all the facts,” Buchanan explained. “That’s why we’re seeing more people gravitate toward podcasts and streaming services they’re seeking out the truth for themselves.”

The Democratic Party now faces an existential challenge. As Buchanan put it, Democrats are becoming “the party of the coastal elites and the white, college-educated coastal elites and those people don’t understand America.” The party’s progressive wing, which dominates its messaging, has alienated large swaths of minority and working-class voters.

While Democrats struggle to redefine their coalition, Republicans have an opportunity to solidify their gains. But Buchanan cautioned that the GOP must focus on maintaining and deepening relationships with minority voters: “They moved to Trump. They did not move to Republicans.”

For Republicans to build on Trump’s success, Buchanan advises the party to:

• Lean into cultural issues: Address topics that resonate with ordinary Americans, such as family values and fairness in sports.

• Communicate economic priorities clearly: Focus on policies that benefit working-class families in practical, relatable terms.

• Invest in minority outreach: Establish lasting relationships in minority communities, moving beyond election-day outreach to foster genuine connections.

Trump’s victory in 2024 signals a rejection of elite-driven politics and a reorientation toward values rooted in tradition and fairness. To sustain this momentum, Republicans must continue to meet voters where they are, both culturally and economically.

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