Jasmine Crockett Leads Chaotic Texas Democratic Senate Primary

Texas may be a red state, but the 2026 Senate primaries are shaping up to be a high-stakes brawl on both sides of the aisle.

A new University of Houston poll reveals that far-left Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) has taken the lead in the Democratic primary, pulling ahead by 8 points over State Rep. James Talarico. Crockett, who has made a name for herself with inflammatory rhetoric and an aggressive anti-Trump agenda, is sitting at 47% among likely Democratic voters, while Talarico trails at 39%.

Her campaign wasted no time spinning the numbers as evidence of momentum:

“Congresswoman Crockett is in the best position to reassemble a winning Texas democratic coalition,” her team claimed, pointing to support from independents and disaffected Republicans.

But there’s nothing moderate about Crockett’s platform or her party’s direction.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee didn’t hold back:

“Today’s Democrat Party is getting more progressive and extreme by the second… Jasmine Crockett’s radical anti-Trump agenda is wrong for Texas,” said NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell.

The Democratic primary has grown especially toxic after allegations surfaced that Talarico referred to former Rep. Colin Allred a fellow Democrat as a “mediocre Black man.” The accusation, though denied, has added fuel to an already volatile race.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the battle is just as fierce and far more consequential.

The same poll showed Attorney General Ken Paxton leading the GOP field with 38%, followed by Sen. John Cornyn at 31%, and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%. Texas primaries require a candidate to win over 50% to avoid a runoff, and if these numbers hold, a Cornyn vs. Paxton showdown looks inevitable.

What’s notable is that every major Republican candidate beats both Crockett and Talarico in head-to-head matchups—but only by narrow margins:

• Paxton: +2 over both Crockett and Talarico

• Cornyn: +2 over Crockett, +1 over Talarico

• Hunt: +3 over Crockett, +4 over Talarico

Rep. Hunt’s campaign jumped on the data, calling it proof that the conservative grassroots are looking past establishment candidates like Cornyn. Hunt’s spokesman James Kyrkanides said:

“Anyone making ‘electability’ arguments while excluding Wesley Hunt isn’t serious about winning. They’re serious about protecting the status quo.”

Paxton, no stranger to political warfare, made it clear he sees Cornyn as the weakest possible choice for Republicans in November:

“John Cornyn is the single worst person in Texas to motivate America First voters. Luckily, he won’t be on the ballot.”

Cornyn, for his part, is fighting to rebrand himself as the pro-Trump candidate despite years of skepticism from the conservative base. He recently launched an ad attacking both Democrats and insisting he’s a “proven conservative” who votes with President Trump “more than 99% of the time.”

But that message may be too little, too late. Cornyn’s campaign is showing signs of collapse, while Paxton and Hunt battle for the support of Trump-aligned voters. So far, President Trump has not made an endorsement, though his eventual decision could tip the scales dramatically.

Despite the noise, The Cook Political Report still rates the race as ‘Likely Republican’ but with Crockett leading on the Left and Cornyn bleeding on the Right, the 2026 Texas Senate race is far from settled.

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