Democrats Keep Hold of New Jersey as Sherrill Defeats Ciattarelli

Democrats narrowly dodged disaster in New Jersey this week as Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the state’s gubernatorial race securing a third consecutive Democratic term for the first time since 1961. But behind the headlines, the results tell a deeper story of voter confusion, political manipulation, and a state increasingly split between common-sense priorities and progressive social engineering.

Sherrill’s win was powered less by her platform and more by a well-oiled coalition of identity-driven voting blocs: Black voters, college-educated women, and younger voters particularly those under 30. According to early voter surveys, nearly 9 in 10 Black voters and 7 in 10 Hispanic voters sided with Sherrill, echoing the demographic trends Democrats have long relied on to hold power in blue states.

But despite the left-wing media’s celebration of this win, the reality is far more complex.

Here’s what the data reveals:

• Voters are fed up with the economy taxes and affordability were top issues, and those voters broke for Ciattarelli by large margins.

• A massive 20-point gender gap favored Sherrill, with women overwhelmingly backing the Democrat while men preferred the Republican.

• Property taxes remain a major crisis, with 7 in 10 voters calling it a major problem, and nearly 90% concerned about rising electricity costs.

• Even Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy’s job approval is underwater, including among 1 in 5 Democrats. But that didn’t stop voters from handing his party another win.

And then there’s the Trump factor still haunting elections even when he’s not on the ballot. According to the data, a full 70% of Sherrill voters cast their ballot as a message against Trump, not in favor of Sherrill’s policies. In other words, Democrats once again ran against a man who isn’t in the race and it worked.

Ciattarelli, who ran on economic reform and change, dominated among White working-class men and parents especially dads. He also earned over 90% of the MAGA vote in the state. Among voters who said they are financially falling behind, more than half still backed Sherrill, proving that emotional narratives and identity politics continue to outweigh basic economic logic in many Democrat-run states.

One particularly revealing data point among voters who cited political corruption as a major concern (and 9 in 10 did), Ciattarelli won the majority. But it wasn’t enough to overcome a machine that excels at activating low-information voters through fear and tribal loyalty.

Even accusations around Sherrill’s Naval Academy graduation fizzled, as voters who prioritized honesty somehow still leaned toward the Democrat. Why? Because most weren’t voting for Sherrill they were voting against Republicans, and by extension, Trump.

The GOP made inroads among young men, White voters, and working-class families but it wasn't enough to stop a Democratic turnout operation fueled by emotion and fear rather than vision or results.

The lesson here? Republicans will never win in deep-blue strongholds unless they crack the Democrats' demographic firewall and start competing in the culture war with the same energy they bring to economic policy.

Sherrill’s win may look like a triumph on the surface, but the numbers suggest deep dissatisfaction brewing below. If Republicans can turn that dissatisfaction into action not just among their base, but among independents and disillusioned moderates 2026 could look very different.

Share this article or subscribe to our newsletter to follow the real fight happening in battleground states across America.