Saudi Arabia and UAE Drift From US Orbit

A Shifting Sands Alliance

The relationship between the United States and its long-standing Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is facing unprecedented strain. While publicly affirming their commitment to partnership, these nations are increasingly pursuing independent foreign policy objectives that often diverge from, and sometimes directly contradict, American interests.

This divergence is not a sudden occurrence. It is the culmination of several factors, including perceived American retrenchment from the region, disillusionment with U.S. foreign policy decisions, and a growing desire among Gulf states to assert themselves as independent actors on the global stage. The consequences of this shift could be significant, impacting everything from energy markets to counter-terrorism efforts.

The Roots of Discontent

One of the primary sources of friction is the perception that the United States is no longer as committed to the security of the Gulf region as it once was. The Obama administration's pursuit of the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), deeply unsettled Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who viewed it as empowering their regional rival. They felt excluded from the negotiations and feared that the deal would embolden Iran's destabilizing activities. This concern was exacerbated by the perceived lack of a strong U.S. response to Iranian aggression in the years that followed, including attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil facilities. According to a 2019 report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iran spent an estimated $16 billion supporting regional proxies between 2012 and 2018, further fueling concerns in the Gulf.

The Trump administration's withdrawal from the JCPOA and its tougher stance on Iran were welcomed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but the overall perception of American unreliability persisted. The chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2021 further reinforced this perception, leaving many in the region questioning the long-term commitment of the United States to maintaining stability in the Middle East.

Beyond security concerns, disagreements over human rights and democratic values have also contributed to the growing rift. The United States has repeatedly criticized Saudi Arabia's human rights record, particularly in the wake of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. These criticisms have been met with resentment in Riyadh, which views them as hypocritical and intrusive. The UAE has also faced scrutiny over its human rights practices, particularly its involvement in the war in Yemen.

Independent Foreign Policy

In response to these perceived shortcomings in the U.S. alliance, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have begun to pursue more independent foreign policy agendas. This includes forging closer ties with countries like China and Russia, both of whom are eager to expand their influence in the Middle East. In 2023, China brokered a historic deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations, a move that underscored the shifting geopolitical landscape in the region. According to data from the Saudi General Authority for Statistics, China became Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner in 2022, with trade exceeding $87 billion.

These nations are also actively seeking to diversify their economies away from oil and gas, investing heavily in technology, tourism, and other sectors. This economic diversification is accompanied by a desire for greater political autonomy, allowing them to pursue their own interests without being overly reliant on the United States. The UAE, in particular, has emerged as a regional hub for trade and investment, attracting businesses and talent from around the world. According to a report by the Dubai Chamber of Commerce, the number of new businesses registered in Dubai increased by 19% in the first half of 2023, highlighting the emirate's growing economic dynamism.

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have taken a more assertive role in regional conflicts, often pursuing their own objectives without coordinating with the United States. The Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, for example, has been criticized by the United States for its devastating humanitarian consequences. The UAE has also been involved in various conflicts in the region, supporting different factions and pursuing its own strategic interests. A United Nations report in 2021 estimated that the conflict in Yemen had resulted in over 377,000 deaths, both directly and indirectly, underscoring the devastating impact of the war.

The Impact on American Interests

The growing divergence between the United States and its Gulf allies poses a number of challenges for American interests in the region. First, it undermines the U.S.'s ability to project power and influence in the Middle East. Without the support of key regional partners, the United States will find it more difficult to address challenges such as terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and regional instability. The U.S. military presence in the region, while still significant, is becoming increasingly reliant on the cooperation of these nations, making the relationship all the more critical.

Second, the shift could have implications for energy markets. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are two of the world's largest oil producers, and their decisions on production levels can have a significant impact on global oil prices. If these countries were to align themselves more closely with China or Russia, they could potentially use their oil leverage to undermine American interests. In April 2023, Saudi Arabia announced a surprise cut in oil production, a move that was widely seen as a snub to the United States and contributed to a rise in global oil prices.

Third, the growing rift could complicate efforts to combat terrorism. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been important partners in the fight against ISIS and other terrorist groups. However, their involvement in regional conflicts and their support for different factions could inadvertently create new opportunities for terrorists to thrive. The United States has long relied on intelligence sharing and security cooperation with these nations to counter terrorist threats, and any weakening of this cooperation would be detrimental to American security.

Can the Relationship Be Salvaged?

Despite the challenges, the relationship between the United States and its Gulf allies is not beyond repair. However, salvaging it will require a fundamental reassessment of American foreign policy and a willingness to address the concerns of these nations. The United States needs to demonstrate a renewed commitment to the security of the Gulf region, while also acknowledging the legitimate interests and aspirations of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

This will require a more nuanced approach to diplomacy, one that recognizes the complexities of the region and the diverse perspectives of its actors. The United States needs to engage in open and honest dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, addressing their concerns about Iran, human rights, and other issues. It also needs to be more transparent about its own foreign policy objectives and to consult with its allies before making major decisions that could impact the region.

Furthermore, the United States needs to find ways to cooperate with Saudi Arabia and the UAE on issues of mutual interest, such as counter-terrorism, economic development, and regional stability. This could involve joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and economic partnerships. It could also involve working together to resolve regional conflicts, such as the war in Yemen.

The United States must understand these nations will continue to develop relationships with China and Russia, something that is not inherently a threat but should be strategically monitored. The key is ensuring that these relationships do not come at the expense of the U.S. alliance. The United States should focus on areas where it can offer unique value, such as security guarantees and advanced technology, while also being willing to compromise on issues where there is less at stake.

Ultimately, the future of the relationship between the United States and its Gulf allies will depend on whether both sides are willing to adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape and to find new ways to cooperate in pursuit of shared interests. The stakes are high, and the consequences of failure could be significant for both the United States and the Middle East.