Russia Rebuilds for Attrition as Ukraine War Drags On

Four years into Vladimir Putin’s catastrophic war in Ukraine, Russia’s once-feared military is battered, hollowed out, and increasingly propped up by desperation. But that doesn’t mean the threat has disappeared.

According to a damning new assessment by Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, Moscow has lost nearly 1 million troops killed or severely wounded in the conflict an astonishing figure that lays bare the human cost of Russia’s failed invasion and exposes just how deeply the Kremlin has dug itself in.

Yet despite the losses, Russia is racing to rearm pivoting to a model that prizes quantity over quality, attrition over agility. The result? A force built for brute force, not battlefield finesse.

• Artillery production has surged 17-fold since 2021, with 7 million rounds produced in 2025 alone far beyond current battlefield needs, signaling preparation for future wars.

• Moscow has tapped convicts, foreign nationals, alcoholics, and addicts to fill its ranks.

• Up to 200,000 prisoners, many convicted of violent crimes, have been recruited in exchange for pardons.

• African students lured under false pretenses have been deployed to frontline units with minimal training.

It’s not exactly the Red Army of old. But it’s still dangerous.

Estonia’s report paints a picture of a military unmoored from traditional discipline. Drug abuse, theft, and abuse of power are rampant, and many frontline soldiers “should not be entrusted with weapons under normal circumstances.” Yet with Putin scrambling to maintain momentum and avoid a humiliating defeat, these human wave tactics appear to be the new norm.

“Russia remains dangerous despite its incompetence,” the Estonian report concludes.

While President Donald Trump recently mocked Russia as a “paper tiger” for failing to conquer Ukraine after nearly four years, Estonia’s intelligence services are urging NATO to stay alert. The war may have exposed deep rot in Moscow’s war machine, but a bloody, low-quality military can still grind its way to destruction especially if the West lets its guard down.

Despite massive manpower losses and reliance on obsolete Soviet gear, Russia is rebuilding its strategic stockpiles, pouring resources into drone production, cheap munitions, and expanded defense lines. In contrast to the Pentagon’s obsession with next-gen tech, Moscow appears committed to the grim logic of volume and expendability.

And it’s not stopping with Ukraine.

A separate analysis from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) warns of “hybrid escalation” in 2026. Instead of focusing on conventional combat, Russia may shift toward a shadow war: sabotage, arson, deniable attacks on Western infrastructure carried out by “disposable saboteurs” recruited through encrypted channels.

“We must prepare not for a resurgent Russia but for a desperate one,” RUSI warns.

From Estonia to Poland to the heart of Europe, the message is clear: a humiliated Russia is not a harmless one. It’s an unstable, unpredictable adversary with nothing left to lose and a leadership class willing to sacrifice tens of thousands more in pursuit of a war they can’t admit they’ve lost.

Back in Moscow, Putin continues his performance brushing off Western intelligence as “wishful thinking” and claiming he’s preparing to “reduce defense spending.” But the facts on the ground tell a different story Russia is gearing up for the long haul.

The good news? NATO isn’t next at least for now. Estonia’s report finds no imminent risk of a Russian attack on alliance members in 2026, as long as current deterrence holds.

The bad news? A Russia built around attrition, firepower, and expendable manpower lowers the threshold for brutal, high-casualty warfare and raises the risk of long-term instability across Europe.

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