U.S.-Russia Nuclear Limits Lifted as New START Treaty Expires

For the first time since 1972, the United States and Russia are no longer bound by formal limits on deployed strategic nuclear weapons. The New START Treaty, which capped both nations' nuclear arsenals for over a decade, expired on February 4, with no replacement agreement in sight.

Originally signed in 2010 under President Obama, New START restricted each country to:

• 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads

• 700 deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers

• 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers

That framework officially ended this week, setting the stage for a new, uncertain era of nuclear competition.

President Donald Trump, who has long criticized legacy arms control frameworks as outdated and one-sided, made it clear last month: “If it expires, it expires. We’ll do a better agreement.”

“You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also,” he added referring to China’s rapidly growing nuclear arsenal.

The administration has tasked the Departments of War and Energy with preparing potential changes to U.S. nuclear posture. That includes an emphasis on testing, training, and modernization, especially as adversaries expand their capabilities.

Trump has repeatedly called out both Russia and China for conducting unacknowledged nuclear testing, while the U.S. has not conducted a nuclear detonation since 1992.

“Russia’s testing, and China’s testing, but they don’t talk about it,” Trump said. “We’re going to test, because they test and others test.”

Officials later clarified that initial testing would focus on systems tests, not live detonations.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s reaction to the treaty expiration was blunt but predictable. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would act based on its “national interests” and made no mention of further cooperation with Washington.

The fallout comes amid a global acceleration of nuclear build-up:

• China is projected to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030, according to the Pentagon.

• Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in 2023, blaming U.S. support for Ukraine, but claimed it would “voluntarily” remain under its limits a claim now void.

In a notable counterbalance to rising tensions, Trump’s diplomatic team announced a 314-person prisoner exchange deal between Russia and Ukraine a significant development in the push to end the war in Eastern Europe.

“While significant work remains, steps like this demonstrate that sustained diplomatic engagement is delivering tangible results,” said special envoy Steve Witkoff.

As the geopolitical chessboard resets, the Trump administration is laying groundwork for a broader, modern arms agreement one that reflects 21st-century threats and includes China’s unchecked rise.

For now, however, the nuclear gloves are off.

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