Nearly Half of NC Voters Have Cast Ballots, with Republicans Leading Early Voting

As early voting progresses in North Carolina, registered Republicans hold a slight lead over Democrats and unaffiliated voters, with nearly half of the state’s registered voters already casting their ballots. According to the latest data, about 3.62 million of North Carolina’s 7.82 million registered voters have voted so far, with 34% of early voters identifying as Republicans, compared to 33% each for Democrats and unaffiliated voters. Though early voting trends are not definitive predictors, they give insight into the state’s political direction.

Michael Pruser from DecisionDeskHQ reported that early turnout now represents around two-thirds of North Carolina’s total expected vote. Unaffiliated voters North Carolina’s largest voting bloc at 37.8% of registered voters are expected to cast the most votes, with Republicans at 29.9% and Democrats at 31.3%. Pruser observed that unaffiliated voters led in daily turnout numbers, and he projected they could remain the dominant group as ballots continue to roll in.

Key highlights from North Carolina’s early voting landscape include:

• Registered Republicans Lead: Republicans currently lead by approximately 22,000 votes over Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

• Unaffiliated Voter Surge: The state’s unaffiliated bloc, representing over a third of all registered voters, could ultimately cast the largest share of ballots.

• Early In-Person Voting Up, Absentee Ballots Down: While in-person early voting is slightly up from 2020 levels, there has been a noticeable decrease in absentee ballots compared to the pandemic-driven turnout of 2020.

North Carolina remains a high-priority state for both parties. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have actively campaigned in the state, one of the top battlegrounds that could sway the 2024 election. However, in a strategic shift, the Harris campaign recently pulled millions from North Carolina’s media markets, choosing to funnel more resources into Virginia. This decision comes as polling in Virginia traditionally a Democratic stronghold has tightened, with Harris struggling to maintain her lead.

The stakes in North Carolina’s 2024 election extend beyond the presidential race. The state will also elect a new governor, with Republican Mark Robinson facing off against Democrat Josh Stein. Robinson has gained traction with a populist approach, while Stein, a former attorney general, is working to maintain Democratic control of the governorship. Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is term-limited, adding even more significance to the gubernatorial race.

Republicans are hopeful about their prospects in North Carolina, a state that Trump won in both 2016 and 2020. However, his margin of victory was narrow, indicating a competitive landscape. With the GOP maintaining a slight edge in early voting, both parties will continue pushing hard to mobilize their bases in the final weeks. The early turnout figures, along with voter enthusiasm on both sides, underscore the fierce competition for North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes and its governorship.

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