NBC Data Expert Analyzes GOP’s Growing Diversity Under Trump

NBC’s National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki recently broke down a surprising trend: the Republican Party has become significantly more diverse under Donald Trump. As Kornacki explained on “Meet the Press,” minority groups often assumed to be staunchly Democratic have steadily shifted toward the GOP over the past eight years. Meanwhile, Democrats are seeing stronger support among college-educated, white, and affluent voters.

Here’s what Kornacki’s data reveals about Trump’s influence on GOP diversity:

• Increasing Support Among Black and Hispanic Voters: The black vote, traditionally a stronghold for Democrats, has shifted by 15 points. Before Trump, Democrats held a staggering 87-point lead with black voters. Today, that margin has narrowed to 72 points. Among Hispanic voters, who leaned Democratic by 44 points in 2012, the GOP has now turned this demographic into a toss-up constituency.

• Asian American Voters Move Toward GOP: Asian American support has also seen a significant 32-point swing toward Republicans, underscoring how Trump’s policies and appeal have broadened the GOP’s reach across diverse communities.

• New Appeal to Younger, Less Affluent Voters: Trump’s GOP also appeals to younger voters, lower-income Americans, and those without college degrees demographics that are typically difficult for Republicans to reach. By reshaping party values and speaking directly to economic and cultural issues affecting these voters, Trump has expanded the GOP’s influence well beyond its traditional base.

The Democratic Party, meanwhile, has seen the reverse trend. Kornacki noted that more white, college-educated voters are turning blue, along with voters earning over $100,000. These shifts have helped make the Democratic base more affluent and more aligned with urban, college-educated populations.

Trump’s success in swing states highlights these changes. In 2024, he “swept” the swing states, as Kornacki pointed out, even becoming the first Republican in 20 years to win the popular vote. Trump’s popularity surged even in blue strongholds like California, where he gained significant ground. Although California’s vote-counting process remains slow, Kornacki estimated millions of mail-in ballots could still be tallied yet they are unlikely to change the outcome significantly.

The data shows a clear trend: Trump’s GOP has resonated with a broader and more diverse coalition of Americans. This transformation within the party defies the outdated narratives about the Republican base, bringing in working-class and minority voters who may have felt left behind by the Democrats’ shift toward elite, urban demographics.

The GOP’s reach across minority communities is likely to be a defining factor in American politics for years to come. Kornacki’s insights suggest that Trump has tapped into deep, often unspoken concerns within these communities, creating a diverse coalition that challenges conventional expectations.

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