JD Vance Urges Conservatives Don’t Trust The Polls

Senator JD Vance (R-OH), the Republican vice presidential nominee for 2024, is cautioning voters not to trust the polls as Election Day approaches. During a recent interview with podcaster Theo Von, Vance warned that polling data whether favorable or not can be misleading, especially with declining response rates and biased sampling methods.

“You shouldn’t trust polls, whether they’re good for us or bad for us,” Vance explained. He noted that polling has become far less accurate over the last decade, with only 1 in 30 people now responding to pollster calls compared to 1 in 10 just ten years ago. This drop, he said, makes it much harder to get a clear picture of what’s happening in the electorate.

Vance also emphasized the skew in polling responses, pointing out that Democrats, particularly those with higher education, are far more likely to respond to pollsters. “If you’re like my family,” Vance said, “if somebody called them a stranger and said, ‘Who are you going to vote for?,’ they would say, ‘F you,’ and hang up the phone.” This reluctance from Trump supporters to engage with pollsters, he argues, is why public polls often underestimate the strength of conservative candidates.

• Polls have missed key races since 2016, underestimating Republican support.

• Betting markets show a clearer picture, with Trump and Vance holding a 10-point advantage in many projections.

• Vance shared his own experience from his 2022 Senate race, where private polling done by Trump’s pollster was more accurate than public surveys.

Vance’s 2022 Ohio Senate race is a prime example of how the polls can miss the mark. “Public polls said the race was tied or maybe we’d lose by a few points,” Vance recalled. But his campaign’s internal polling showed a different story, predicting a 6-point win. “And we won by 7 points,” Vance said, noting that the more accurate polling was based on reaching voters who typically avoid answering polls.

Public polls, Vance explained, are often done on the cheap, costing around $10,000 to $20,000. To get a truly accurate sample, he says, you need to spend between $60,000 and $70,000 to survey thousands of voters. This lack of investment in proper polling methodology is part of why so many public polls miss the mark, especially in predicting Republican victories.

Referencing a chart from the betting market platform Kalshi, which shows Donald Trump with a 57%-43% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, Vance said, “Honestly, yeah, I think that chart’s about right. I think we’ve probably got about a 60% chance of winning.”

In closing, Vance urged voters not to become complacent or dissuaded by polling data, even if it shows a win for him and Trump. “You just can’t trust this stuff,” he said. “You’ve got to assume that you just got to work your ass off.” Vance noted that he and Trump are doing multiple events daily to energize their base, pushing for a future where securing the border and common-sense economic policy are the top priorities.

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