Ben Shapiro Explains Israel’s Ceasefire Decision with Hezbollah

Israel’s recent 60-day ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, brokered by the U.S. and France, is less about securing peace and more about buying time until President Joe Biden leaves office, according to Ben Shapiro. The deal, which began Wednesday, follows the approval of terms by Israeli lawmakers and promises of a “permanent cessation of hostilities” from the Biden administration.

However, Shapiro, editor emeritus of The Daily Wire, has outlined why the deal is likely to fail and how Israel is strategically leveraging the ceasefire to outlast the Biden presidency.

Under the agreement:

• Hezbollah is to retreat north of the Litani River and withdraw forces from southern Lebanon.

• Israel will pull back its troops, while Lebanese and U.N. peacekeeping forces will maintain a buffer zone.

The arrangement resembles the ineffective U.N. Resolution 1701 from 2006, which allowed Hezbollah to strengthen its position despite international monitoring. Shapiro and other critics remain skeptical of its durability.

Shapiro’s Analysis of the Ceasefire

Shapiro argues that Israel has three main reasons for agreeing to the ceasefire, despite its misgivings:

1. Biden’s Hostility Toward Israel 

Shapiro points to President Biden’s sluggish delivery of military aid to Israel, which has directly endangered Israeli troops. The ceasefire gives Israel time to re-arm and prepare for action under the anticipated Trump administration, which has historically provided stronger support for Israel.

2. International Pressure Relief 

The deal temporarily shields Israel from diplomatic pressures by the U.S. and France, both of whom have been eager to end the conflict with Hezbollah. This breathing room allows Israel to recalibrate its strategy without risking further international backlash.

3. Strategic Positioning Against Hamas 

By temporarily sidelining Hezbollah, Israel can prevent the terror group from interfering in its conflict with Hamas. Hamas has repeatedly sought to involve other regional powers to tip the scales in its favor, and neutralizing Hezbollah reduces that threat.

Shapiro also noted a striking coincidence in the timeline: “It is a 60-day ceasefire. Joe Biden leaves office in 54 days. That is not a coincidence.”

Despite the ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not encouraged the 70,000 displaced Israelis in northern Israel to return to their homes. This suggests Israel’s leadership does not trust Hezbollah to uphold the agreement and is prepared to act once the U.S. presidential transition occurs.

Shapiro concludes that the success of the ceasefire depends entirely on Hezbollah’s compliance. “The durability of the ceasefire is completely dependent on Hezbollah and Lebanon abiding by it. If they don’t, and January 20 comes, Israel will do what it must,” he said.

As the clock ticks down on Biden’s presidency, Israel’s ceasefire appears to be less a peace deal and more a strategic pause. With Hezbollah’s history of violating agreements, Israel is merely biding its time, preparing for a stronger and more resolute U.S. administration under President-elect Trump.

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