Iran Pledges Unwavering Support for Assad After Rebels Seize Aleppo

The Iranian regime has vowed to bolster Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after rebel forces seized Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, in a stunning resurgence of the nation’s protracted civil war. The announcement signals Tehran’s deepening involvement in the region, even as it grapples with its own geopolitical challenges.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Damascus on Sunday to affirm unwavering support for the embattled Assad regime.

“We firmly support the Syrian army and government,” Araghchi told state media before his departure. “The Syrian army will once again be victorious over these terrorist groups as in the past.”

The rebel offensive, spearheaded by the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has shaken the Assad regime and its allies, including Russia and Iran. HTS, once an affiliate of al-Qaeda, was designated a terrorist organization by the United States in 2018. The group’s resurgence highlights the Assad regime’s vulnerability amid distractions in Moscow and Tehran, both consumed by separate conflicts.

Assad’s reliance on foreign backers is no secret, but the pressure on those allies has left gaps in his defenses.

Russia, Assad's strongest military ally, remains bogged down in its war against Ukraine, diverting significant resources away from Syria.

Iran, a key supporter of Assad, has suffered losses in its ongoing proxy war with Israel, including significant blows to Hezbollah, its proxy militia in Lebanon.

Over the weekend, Russian and Syrian jets launched airstrikes on rebel-controlled areas, including a devastating attack in Aleppo that killed at least 12 civilians. However, such actions appear insufficient to stem the tide against the regrouped and emboldened rebels.

Experts suggest the timing of the rebel offensive reflects both strategic opportunity and shifting regional dynamics.

“This has to do with geopolitics and local opportunity,” said Emile Hokayem, a Middle East security expert.

HTS and allied forces have capitalized on perceived weaknesses in Assad’s coalition, striking when Iran and Russia are overstretched and unable to respond effectively.

HTS, while classified as a terrorist organization, has taken advantage of the disarray to expand its influence in western Syria. Its resurgence underscores the fragmented and volatile nature of the Syrian conflict.

The Biden administration has taken a cautious approach to the latest developments, balancing concerns over HTS’s terrorist ties with broader regional interests. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan reflected this measured stance during an interview on CNN.

“It’s a complicated question,” Sullivan remarked. “The group at the vanguard of this rebel advance, HTS, is actually a terrorist organization... At the same time, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government... are facing certain kinds of pressure.”

The United States faces a challenging calculus. While Assad’s potential weakening could disrupt Iran and Russia’s grip on Syria, the empowerment of HTS poses its own risks to regional stability.

As the Syrian civil war reignites with new vigor, the battle for Aleppo could mark a significant turning point. Iran’s renewed pledge to Assad underscores its determination to maintain influence in the region, despite mounting pressures at home and abroad. Meanwhile, the international community watches closely, wary of what a strengthened HTS could mean for Syria and beyond.

This volatile situation underscores the high stakes for all players involved. As the Assad regime fights to reclaim lost ground, the question remains: will Syria’s warlords plunge the nation into deeper chaos, or will a fractured stalemate define the next chapter of this brutal conflict?

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