Dem Senators Concerned Trump’s Support Is Being Undercounted in Polls

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, several Democratic senators are voicing concerns that former President Donald Trump may have more support than polls suggest, raising the possibility of yet another close election. Trump, who outperformed polling projections in both 2016 and 2020, is again showing signs that his voter base could be significantly undercounted, leading some Democrats to brace for a tight race.

According to the RealClearPolitics average, Trump currently trails Vice President Kamala Harris by just 2.2 points nationally. The slim margin between Harris and Trump is narrower than the leads that Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton had over Trump at this point in their respective elections. This shift has left some Democrats feeling uneasy about what the polls are missing.

“That’s ominous,” said one anonymous Democratic senator, commenting on the surprisingly close polls between Trump and Harris. The senator pointed out that Trump’s supporters might be undercounted due to a reluctance to publicly admit their support, as many feel “embarrassed” about backing a candidate whose behavior they’ve often criticized. “Most of what he preaches, most of us have taught our children to try to not be that way on the playground,” the senator added, noting the hesitation some voters feel about openly supporting Trump.

Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) echoed these concerns, particularly about the reliability of polling in battleground states like Pennsylvania. “Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016,” Fetterman warned, acknowledging Trump’s strong foothold in the state and cautioning against putting too much faith in current poll numbers.

Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock from Georgia, another key battleground state, similarly dismissed the significance of polling at this stage. “The only poll that matters is Nov. 5,” Warnock stated, emphasizing that the race will be a close one, particularly in swing states like Georgia, where Democrats are working hard to secure a win.

Several Democrats noted that polls may be overlooking key segments of Trump’s support, particularly from first-time voters who didn’t participate in the 2020 election. Pollster Celinda Lake pointed to this trend, explaining that low-information voters leaning toward Trump are an area of concern. “They like his kind of style,” Lake said, adding that Trump’s appeal to figures like Elon Musk and his populist message could sway new voters to his side. Lake also noted, “We just have to get enough margin to compensate for that.”

Key concerns voiced by Democrats include:

• Trump’s support may be undercounted due to voter reluctance to publicly back him.

• Polling inaccuracies since 2016 have heightened concerns about a hidden Trump vote, particularly in battleground states.

• First-time voters, who didn’t participate in 2020 but plan to vote in 2024, are disproportionately leaning toward Trump.

While some Democrats downplay the significance of current polling, others are raising red flags about the potential for unexpected turnout that could swing key states in Trump’s favor. With both sides preparing for a hard-fought race, the 2024 election could prove as unpredictable as the last two.

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