CNN Analyst Warns Trump Likely Doing Better Than Polls Suggest

CNN’s top polling analyst, Harry Enten, sounded an alarm for those dismissing Donald Trump’s chances in the 2024 presidential race, suggesting that the former president may be doing significantly better than current polls indicate. In a segment on Tuesday, Enten highlighted the historical inaccuracies of polls in key battleground states, which have consistently underestimated Trump’s support.

Reviewing data from the 2016 and 2020 elections, Enten pointed out that in crucial Great Lakes states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, polls underestimated Trump’s performance by an average of nine points in 2016 and by five points in 2020. These discrepancies suggest that Trump’s current polling deficit against Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, may not be as severe as it appears.

“The bottom line is this,” Enten said. “If you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race.”

Enten warned that if a similar polling shift occurs between now and election day as it did in previous cycles, Trump could actually emerge victorious. He also emphasized that enthusiasm for a candidate doesn’t always translate to voter turnout. While Harris currently enjoys greater enthusiasm than President Joe Biden did, the percentage of voters who say they will definitely vote for her remains lower than Biden’s at the same point in the last election cycle.

Further underscoring Trump’s strong position, Enten noted that Trump is more popular today than he was at this time in either 2016 or 2020. “Yes, Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls,” Enten concluded, “but there’s a long way to go. The polls can shift, the almost certain to vote hasn’t actually shifted, and Donald Trump is more popular than he was at either 2016 or 2020 at this point.”

As the 2024 election approaches, Enten’s analysis serves as a stark reminder that polling data should be viewed with caution, especially when it comes to a candidate as polarizing and resilient as Donald Trump.

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