China Plays Both Sides In Ukraine War

At the Munich Security Conference, China tried to project the image of a responsible global power. It pledged new humanitarian energy assistance to Ukraine, expressing support for peace and reconstruction.

But at the very same conference, a senior U.S. official delivered a blunt assessment: China could end Russia’s war tomorrow and has chosen not to.

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker didn’t mince words. He argued that Beijing is the single most important external enabler of Russia’s invasion. According to Whitaker, China has the economic leverage and technological influence to dramatically alter Moscow’s war calculus.

And yet, the war grinds on.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on the sidelines of the conference and pledged additional humanitarian energy assistance. Ukraine’s power grid has been repeatedly targeted by Russian missile and drone strikes, leaving millions without stable electricity during winter months.

Kyiv welcomed the aid. Sybiha publicly expressed gratitude for the new energy package, though Beijing has not disclosed the size or scope of the assistance.

China maintains it is not a party to the conflict and insists it seeks a “constructive” role in achieving peace. Chinese officials deny supplying lethal weapons to Russia and argue that negotiations not sanctions or escalation are the path forward.

On the surface, that sounds measured.

But the economic reality tells a different story.

While pledging humanitarian aid to Ukraine, China has simultaneously become Russia’s largest energy customer.

Tracking data shows that roughly 1.65 million barrels per day of Russian crude were delivered to Chinese ports in January the highest monthly level since March 2024 and the second-highest since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022. Those purchases inject billions into the Kremlin’s war machine at a time when Western sanctions aim to squeeze Moscow’s revenue.

Energy exports are the backbone of Russia’s federal budget. In 2023, oil and gas revenues accounted for roughly 30% of Russia’s total government income. When China increases purchases, it helps stabilize that lifeline.

Beyond oil, Western officials say Beijing provides dual-use technologies components that can serve civilian purposes but are also critical for military applications. These include microelectronics, machine tools, and drone components.

According to U.S. intelligence assessments, China supplies a significant share of the semiconductors and precision equipment Russia needs to replenish weapons systems damaged or destroyed in Ukraine.

The result is a paradox on display in Munich:

• China offers to help repair Ukraine’s power grid.

• China buys record levels of Russian oil.

• China provides industrial goods that sustain Russian military production.

That is not neutrality. That is strategic hedging.

Beijing’s approach allows it to maintain diplomatic access to Kyiv while deepening its partnership with Moscow. Since the invasion began, trade between China and Russia has surged to record highs, surpassing $200 billion annually. Financial cooperation has expanded as Russia shifts transactions into yuan to bypass Western sanctions.

Meanwhile, NATO has grown more unified. Finland and Sweden joined the alliance in direct response to Russian aggression, expanding NATO’s border with Russia by more than 800 miles.

For Washington and European capitals, the concern is clear: China is positioning itself for post-war reconstruction discussions while simultaneously sustaining the very war that will require reconstruction.

The United States has increasingly framed China as Russia’s chief external backer. Without Chinese oil purchases and technological exports, Moscow would face far greater economic strain.

China, for its part, rejects the accusation. It argues that sanctions prolong the conflict and that dialogue remains the only solution.

But actions speak louder than conference-room statements.

If Beijing truly wanted to pressure the Kremlin, it could:

• Scale back or suspend Russian oil imports.

• Restrict exports of dual-use components.

• Publicly demand a ceasefire tied to economic consequences.

Instead, it continues expanding trade.

The Ukraine war has become more than a regional conflict. It is a test of whether authoritarian powers can redraw borders by force while leveraging economic partnerships to blunt Western pressure.

China’s balancing act underscores a larger reality: economic interdependence cuts both ways. While the West relies heavily on China for manufacturing and supply chains, Beijing is using its economic weight to insulate Moscow from isolation.

For European governments weighing sanctions on Chinese firms suspected of aiding Russia, Beijing’s humanitarian outreach complicates diplomacy. But the numbers are hard to ignore.

Oil flows. Technology transfers. Trade records shattered.

At Munich, the message from U.S. officials was direct: China has the power to shift the trajectory of this war.

The question is whether it ever intends to use it.

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