Can Putin Be Trusted Even If Trump Secures a Ukraine Peace Deal?

Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire following negotiations led by the Trump administration, marking a major step toward ending the brutal war. However, Russia has yet to sign on, raising a critical question Can Vladimir Putin be trusted to uphold a peace deal?

Under Putin’s leadership, Russia has repeatedly violated international agreements meant to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty.

• 1994 Budapest Memorandum–Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for territorial assurances, only for Putin to seize Crimea in 2014.

• 1997 Treaty on Friendship–Russia agreed to respect Ukraine’s borders but backed separatist forces in the Donbas.

• 2014-2015 Minsk Agreements–Russia claimed to support de-escalation in eastern Ukraine but never fully honored the deal, leading to the 2022 full-scale invasion.

Even if Trump secures a peace deal, Putin’s long history of deceit suggests Russia will continue its efforts to undermine Ukraine through cyberattacks, espionage, and military aggression.

Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer, cautioned that Russia will continue clandestine operations worldwide regardless of any agreement.

"There’s no such thing as peace in Russia’s strategic military thinking. You are in a constant confrontation."

Other experts stress that Putin will only stop if he believes Russia has lost. Michael Ryan, a former Pentagon official, argues that Putin must feel like he has lost the war, much like the Soviet Union did at the end of the Cold War.

“The Russians only understand win-lose outcomes,” Ryan explained. “To prevent them from attacking Ukraine again, they must see themselves as the losers.”

While Biden’s weakness gave Putin free rein, Trump’s unpredictability has thrown Moscow off balance.

Koffler noted that Putin does not trust the U.S. and trusts Trump even less than Biden.

“He could read Biden and predict his behavior. He cannot read Trump because Trump is unpredictable.”

Trump has already shifted the conversation from “if the war will end” to “how the war will end.” However, experts warn that the West must take real steps to deter further Russian aggression, including:

• Strengthening NATO’s military presence in Europe.

• Increasing defense spending to counter Russian threats.

• Developing counter-strategies to Putin’s hybrid warfare tactics.

Peace is possible but only if the U.S. and its allies take decisive action to prevent Russia from breaking yet another agreement.

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