California Democrats Fear Lockout In Governor Race

For decades, California has been treated as a guaranteed Democratic stronghold. But even in the bluest state in the country, internal party chaos is raising alarms.

California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks is now warning fellow Democrats that their own crowded primary could backfire potentially allowing two Republicans to advance to the general election and shut Democrats out of the governor’s race entirely.

The warning underscores growing anxiety inside the party as more than a dozen Democrats compete to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2026.

California’s unusual election system is at the center of the concern.

Under the state’s “top-two” jungle primary, every candidate appears on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the November general election even if they belong to the same party.

In theory, the system was designed to encourage moderation. In practice, it sometimes produces surprising results when one party divides its vote among too many candidates.

That’s the scenario Democratic leaders now fear.

In a letter to candidates, Hicks urged them to seriously evaluate whether they have any realistic path to finishing in the top two.

“Despite the ongoing chatter, the likelihood of two Republicans effectively locking out California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low,” Hicks wrote. “However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible.”

Still, the fact that the warning needed to be issued at all speaks volumes.

The Democratic field is massive, featuring more than a dozen candidates, including:

• Rep. Eric Swalwell

• Former Rep. Katie Porter

• Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa

• Billionaire activist Tom Steyer

• San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan

Meanwhile, Republicans have consolidated more clearly around two leading contenders: Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton.

Several early polls show the Republican candidates competitive enough to potentially secure the top two slots especially if Democratic votes are split across numerous candidates.

And in California politics, fragmented primaries can produce unpredictable outcomes.

Consider this California has roughly 22 million registered voters, but only about 46% consistently participate in primary elections, meaning a relatively small slice of the electorate can determine who advances.

That dynamic amplifies the risk of vote-splitting.

If Democratic support scatters across many candidates while Republican voters rally behind just one or two, the math could create a surprising result even in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly two-to-one in voter registration.

Hicks made clear that party leadership views the possibility as a serious strategic threat.

He urged candidates with weak support to consider stepping aside before April 15, allowing the party to consolidate behind fewer contenders.

The stakes, according to Hicks, extend well beyond the governor’s mansion.

A Republican lockout could suppress Democratic turnout in November something the party fears could ripple into congressional races and impact the battle for control of the U.S. House.

“The result would present a real risk to winning the congressional seats required and imperil Democrats’ chances to retake the House,” Hicks wrote.

That admission highlights a deeper reality: even in a state dominated by Democrats, internal divisions can become a political liability.

Republicans, meanwhile, see an opening.

Sheriff Chad Bianco has built a reputation as a law-and-order candidate in a state grappling with rising concerns about crime and homelessness. Steve Hilton, a former television host and policy commentator, has also been campaigning aggressively on economic reform and government accountability.

If the Democratic vote fractures badly enough, the once-unthinkable scenario could happen two Republicans facing off in a general election for governor in California.

The state’s primary election is scheduled for June 2, and the coming months could determine whether Democratic leaders succeed in preventing a political surprise.

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