Betting Odds Reveal Kamala Harris and Joe Biden in Dead Heat for Nomination

The aftermath of the recent presidential debate between former President Trump and President Biden has dramatically shifted the landscape in the Democratic race, with betting markets now showing Vice President Kamala Harris running neck-and-neck with Biden for the party's nomination.

As of Wednesday, the prediction market platform Polymarket indicated that bettors are giving Biden a 49% chance of securing the nomination compared to a 35% chance for Harris. This is a significant drop from last Thursday, when Biden was seen as a 90% sure bet before his debate performance. In contrast, Harris, who had a minuscule 1% chance pre-debate, saw a dramatic rise in her odds.

Another prediction platform, PredictIt, mirrored this trend, showing Biden with a 42-38 cent lead over Harris. Earlier in the week, Harris briefly held a 1% lead, highlighting the volatility and uncertainty within the Democratic ranks.

Key Points:

• Shifting Odds: Polymarket's data reflects Biden’s 49% chance of nomination versus Harris' 35%, a sharp change from pre-debate figures.

• PredictIt Trends: Biden leads Harris by 4% on PredictIt, but the gap has fluctuated significantly in recent days.

• Trump's Dominance: PredictIt shows Trump with a commanding 59-23 cent lead over Harris and a 59-20 cent lead over Biden.

The debate's fallout has not only affected betting markets but also sparked political ramifications. On Tuesday, Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas became the first Democratic House member to call for Biden to step down. Doggett cited Biden’s trailing performance in key polls and the president’s inability to effectively counter Trump during the debate as key reasons for his stance.

"President Biden has continued to run substantially behind Democratic senators in key states and in most polls has trailed Donald Trump. I had hoped that the debate would provide some momentum to change that. It did not," Doggett stated. He drew a parallel to former President Lyndon Johnson’s decision in 1968 to withdraw from the race after a challenging primary season, suggesting that Biden should similarly step aside for a new generation of leadership.

Doggett’s call for Biden to step down is significant, given his respect for the president’s accomplishments but also his belief that Biden’s primary commitment is to the country, not personal ambition. This sentiment may resonate with other Democrats facing the reality of Biden's weakened position post-debate.

The Democratic Party now faces a critical juncture, with Biden's and Harris' near-equal odds reflecting deep uncertainty about the future of the ticket. As the 2024 election approaches, the party's strategy and nominee choice will be pivotal in their quest to retain the White House.

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