The Washington Examiner's page headline on Tuesday read "Election poll shifts Alaska and South Carolina Senate races to Democrats." The story under it is not about a poll. It reports rating changes from Sabato's Crystal Ball, the election forecaster at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
A rating is an analyst's judgment about where a race stands. A poll is a survey of voters. Sabato's own post is headlined as four rating changes, led by Alaska Senate moving to Leans Democratic. The Examiner's text, as published, cites the forecaster's ratings and no survey of any kind.
The second problem is South Carolina. The Examiner's own text says the race, which features Republican Darline Graham Nordone against Democrat Annie Andrews, moved from "Safe Republican" to "Leans Republican." That is still a Republican rating. The forecaster thinks the seat is less safe than it did before, not that it has shifted to Democrats.
Alaska is the only race in the story where the rating now favors a Democrat. The Examiner reports that the contest between Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola moved from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democrat." The story adds that the forecaster had earlier shifted other battleground races toward Democrats, naming Abdul el Sayed in Michigan and Josh Turek in Iowa. Those are also ratings, not polls.
The Examiner's story carries a second, more accurate headline on the page. It says Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the Alaska and South Carolina races in favor of Democrats, which matches the text. The page also tags the story under Polling. The problem is the headline readers see first, the one that turns a forecaster's judgment into an election poll and a weaker Republican rating into a Democratic gain.
Read the headline and you get a poll and two Democratic pickups. Read the rater's post and the story's own text and you get one forecaster adjusting ratings in two races, one of which still leans Republican. Race ratings should name the rater and the date, and the story's text does that: Sabato's Crystal Ball, published Tuesday.
